The 14 Year Cycle
The famed Biltmore Pier shown before it was destroyed during the infamous Winter of 1983 (Courtesy Photo)
Last XXL Swell to Slam Our Coast Was Three Years Ago; Next is Overdue?
Professional metorologists and amateurs observers alike have long recognized a pattern having to do with the correlation of “El Niño” weather events, and stronger-than-normal surf seasons. No two El Niños are alike, and there is significant variability regarding the potency or strength of such warm water anomalies. The most recent El Niño (last season), while it did produce a spike in storm activity in the Eastern Pacific region was, comparatively speaking, mild in comparison to the two benchmark events of 1983, and 1997—both of which produced some of the greatest swells of all time. Perhaps THE most famous Winters of all was the infamous Winter of 1969, which, as it turns out (doh) was also an El Niño year. Are you noticing a pattern here? ‘69, ‘83, ‘97…. The pattern seems to be a 14 year cycle, which, if true, points to… 2011. What’s that you’re thinking, we’re currently in the opposite (“La Niña”) water temp. oscillation phase, with colder-than-normal conditions in control. Interestingly enough, though, NOAA has declared that the current La Niña is decaying rapidly. The question I pose to you now: do you predict a return to “normal” (neutral) in the coming months, or are you more optimistic than that—is the next monster Winter season just around the corner?
This is the most recent sea surface temperature anomaly chart. Sigificant warming appears to be occurring near the equator…....
» wrote on 04.13.11 @ 07:27 AM
Great photos of Biltmore pier. I’d like to buy a print from the photographer, please.
» wrote on 04.13.11 @ 08:55 AM
Well if Huglin wants one so do I.
Stormsurf says NOAA is wrong. I am not sure who I trust more.
» wrote on 04.14.11 @ 09:33 AM
wow, nice photo! i might have seen this same swell on kaua’i. 1 1/2 miles offshore of queen’s pond, 60’ deep, is a barrier reef. waves breaking top to bottom, full of sand, dumping way out there, in the am. check the surfer’s journal, gerald saunders portfolio, and you’ll see david beck at kalihiwai in the pm, after the swell had dropped considerably.
» wrote on 04.15.11 @ 06:05 AM
What a classic shot of the pier…once upon a time. 1983 also was year for weather, and tides. Now that was a great shot you found and very good use with the article. I will be in San Diego tomorrow, praise God!!!
» wrote on 04.15.11 @ 08:43 AM
i saw this and got so excited! :D
» wrote on 04.18.11 @ 08:37 AM
This photo brings back memories. I’m with Greg, reprints please! Glad Evan is excited about this.
» wrote on 04.19.11 @ 11:40 AM
i so enjoy learning about all of this here! big big thanks!!!
» wrote on 04.22.11 @ 03:47 PM
Hey remember that the last XXL swell February 24th 2008 came during a la Nina year.
» wrote on 08.15.11 @ 09:16 AM
I remember this day,there was seafoam and sand all over the low spots along channel drive,even seaweed on the Biltmore lawn.A lot of people were hanging out there in those days,it was a great scene.this storm caused damage at the miramar.the pier was in bad shape after that,waves were breaking ON the Pier…they dismantled what was left shortly thereafter.it had been closed for a while but people would still sneak out there.
